COLLECTIVE ACTION AND INFORMAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ROTATING AND SAVINGS CREDIT ASSOCIATIONS (ROSCAS) IN SENEGAL

This study analyzes how rotating savings and credit associations (ROSCAs) in Senegal were able to overcome the collective action dilemma, maintain institutional performance, and remain sustainable over time. This study models cooperation among members as well as the performance and sustainability of associations using data collected from field research conducted in Dakar, Senegal in 2001. The results show that factors such as homogeneity of individuals within an association, how long the association has existed, how defaults are covered, and rules such residency requirements, individual contributions, and rotation order are to various degree critical to the performance and sustainability of ROSCAs and to the fostering of cooperation among members of these associations.Financial Economics,

The Political and Economic Determinants of Trade Disputes under the WTO

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/25/08.democratization, system of government, trade disputes, World Trade Organization (WTO), economic strata, International Relations/Trade, P16, F13,

Dynamic and Stochastic Structures of U.S. Cotton Exports and Mill Demand

This study employs a structural time-series method to model and estimate U.S. cotton exports and mill use. The results show that the stochastic process governing cotton export fluctuations is transitory, while the process pertaining to mill use has transitory, seasonal, and secular origins. The estimated structural relationships after accounting for the unobserved components indicate U.S. cotton exports respond directly to higher international price relative to domestic price of cotton, while mill use responds directly to U.S. textile output price and cotton-to-polyester price ratio. Exchange rate volatility and the U.S. Export Enhancement Program have no significant effect on cotton exports.cotton exports, cotton mill use, Kalman filter, state space, unobserved components, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,

Dynamics of Price-Cost Margins in the U.S. Meat Industry

This study analyses the stochastic behavior of price-cost margins (PCMs) in the U.S. meat industry. It, first, develops and estimates a vertical relationship economic model to derive PCMs in the U.S. meat industry (Beef, Pork, and Poultry). Second it analyzes the behavior of PCMs by decomposing them into their seasonal, cyclical, and trend components using the state-space and the Kalman filtering methods. Price-cost margins in the U.S. meat industry are governed by two common trends and two common cycles. The study also found cyclical variability of PCMs is the highest with chicken, secular variability of PCMs is the highest with pork, while seasonal variability of PCMs is the highest with beef.Price-cost margins, market channel, meat industry, state-space Kalman filter, Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market - Evidence from a Seemingly Unrelated Structural Time Series

This study shows that the stochastic process that governs price fluctuations in the international fiber market has transitory and permanent components. The results also indicate structural relationships between cotton price and wool price, wool price and oil price, rayon price and cotton price, and between polyester price and cotton price.Unobserved components, state-space, Kalman filter, fiber prices, cofeature, International Relations/Trade, C32, Q11,

Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices with Asymmetric-Error GARCH Models

The performance of a proposed asymmetric-error GARCH model is evaluated in comparison to the normal-error- and Student-t-GARCH models through three applications involving forecasts of U.S. soybean, sorghum, and wheat prices. The applications illustrate the relative advantages of the proposed model specification when the error term is asymmetrically distributed, and provide improved probabilistic forecasts for the prices of these commodities.GARCH, nonnormality, skewness, time-series forecasting, U.S. commodity prices, Demand and Price Analysis,

Asymmetry, Risk, and Correlation Dynamics in the U.S. Fiber Market

This study looked at the dynamics of conditional correlations and hedging strategies in the US main cotton producing regions. A two-step procedure was utilized to model, estimate, and analyze volatility, conditional correlations, and the optimal hedge ratios using spot prices in the Delta, Southeast, Southern Plains, and the Southwest regions and the New York commodity exchanges December futures contracts. The results indicate that volatilities in most of the regions are asymmetric and persistent. The derived conditional correlations and the optimal hedging ratios are dynamic although they do not have unit root. Moreover, the changes in agricultural policies altered the dynamics of correlations and producers' hedging strategies in the Delta, Southeast, and Southern Plains regions.Cotton, volatility, asymmetry, multivariate conditional correlations, optimal, Risk and Uncertainty,

Demand for livestock products in developing countries with a focus on quality and safety attributes: Evidence from case studies

The case studies and the synthesis papers were presented at a mini-symposium at the International Association of Agricultural Economists conference held in Beijing, Peoples Republic of China, on 18–24 August 2009.demand, livestock products, quality, safety, developing countries, Consumer/Household Economics, Livestock Production/Industries,

THE IMPACTS OF U.S. COTTON PROGRAMS ON THE WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICAN COUNTRIES COTTON EXPORT EARNINGS

This study uses a stochastic simulation approach based on a partial equilibrium structural econometric model of the world fiber market to examine the effects of a removal of U.S. cotton programs on the world market. The effects on world cotton prices and African export earnings were analyzed. The results suggest that on average an elimination of U.S. cotton programs would lead to a marginal increase in the world cotton prices thus resulting in minimal gain for cotton exporting countries in Africa.Stochastic simulation, partial equilibrium model, United States, Africa, cotton subsidies, export earnings, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Q11, Q17,

PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE U.S. FIBER MARKETS:ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR COTTON INDUSTRY

The paper examines the price dynamics in the U.S. fiber market using error correction version of Granger causality test. Monthly prices are used to examine short-run and long-run price relationships simultaneously. Before specifying causal equations, time series properties of the prices are tested and are found to be first difference stationary and cointegrated. The causality results suggest weak lead-lag relationship between cotton and polyester prices in either direction. However, strongest relation is instantaneous feedback (within a month) between cotton and polyester prices. It may be interpreted from these results that any shock to the equilibrium relationships is mostly restored within a month. In addition, highly significant error correction terms in cotton and polyester equations also suggest the absence of distinct price leader which means both prices respond to restore equilibrium relationships.Production Economics,